Brent and WTI Trends: What Traders Should Know for 2026

Brent and WTI are ending 2025 back near the lows, after a year of steady selling.
Big banks now see a modest surplus and slightly lower average prices in 2026.

For active traders, the edge may sit less in the forecast – and more in how and where you trade it.

Where oil sits now

Brent has spent most of 2025 grinding lower. Repeated rallies towards the mid-$70s have failed, leaving price now around $61 a barrel. The WTI chart looks similar, with the market back below $58 after a year of lower highs and choppy swings.

This is despite regular headline risk – attacks on infrastructure, sanctions noise, shipping incidents. Each shock produced a spike, but none changed the broader trend. If you only looked at the charts, you would say crude has had a tired, trendless bear market.

That sets the stage for how Wall Street is thinking about 2026.

What the banks expect for 2026

Bloomberg pulled together forecasts from five banks: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Their message is clear enough:

Brent is trading near $62 today.
They expect 2026 Brent to average about $59.
On their numbers, the market runs a surplus of roughly 2.2 million barrels a day.

The International Energy Agency is more bearish on balances. Its latest outlook still shows a potential glut close to 4 million barrels a day next year, even after allowing for some producer response.

Inside the bank group there is a spread of views:

Goldman Sachs is the most bearish on price, with an average around $56. It points to projects delayed during Covid now coming onstream, adding supply into a soft tape.
Citigroup sits at the top end near $62, arguing that continued Chinese stockpiling will quietly absorb some of the surplus.
JPMorgan thinks OPEC+ will reverse course and cut production in the middle of the year if prices stay under pressure.
Bank of America assumes the group resumes adding barrels after a planned pause in the first quarter.

Take all of that together and you get the core Street story: a comfortable surplus, a small step down in price, not much drama.

What could change the story

Three areas could move the market away from that neat surplus view.

1. Demand keeps grinding higher

The IEA has nudged its demand forecast up again. It now sees 2026 demand rising by about 860,000 barrels a day, helped by cheaper crude and a weaker dollar. Almost all of the growth is in non-OECD economies and petrochemicals.

OPEC’s numbers are higher still. It keeps total 2026 demand above 106 million barrels a day, with no clear “peak demand” in sight. Growth is slower than the post-Covid rebound, but it is still growth.

If these revisions continue, the headline surplus shrinks before any new supply shocks are added.

2. Supply comfort is fragile

The surplus depends on several things going right at once:

delayed projects ramping up broadly on schedule
disciplined US shale, not chasing volume
steady Russian and other sanctioned exports
OPEC+ cohesion, with no major policy split

Any change – from accidents, maintenance, policy or elections – can cut into available supply quickly. That does not guarantee a bull market, but it means the “comfortable” balance is more of a narrow path than it first appears.

3. Politics and security risk fatten the tails

The charts are calm; the politics behind them are not.

Drone strikes on refineries, pipeline disruptions and shipping incidents in the Black Sea and Caribbean have become a recurring feature. Energy policy in Europe and North America still swings between decarbonisation targets and voter anger over fuel costs.

Forecasts work with annual averages. Real P&L lives in the tails – in the weeks when something breaks and liquidity thins out just as price gaps.

What this means for traders and investors

If you trade oil, or use it as part of a broader macro or equity index view, the Street’s 2026 call is a useful reference point – but not a roadmap.

A few practical questions to ask as you plan next year:

Positioning: are you leaning with the surplus story – using carry, spreads and relative value – or keeping optionality in case balances tighten?
Risk size: does your sizing assume a quiet market with Brent in the mid-$50s to low-$60s, or could your book handle a break back into the $70s or lower-$50s if the narrative changes?
Platform choice: can your current broker or platform give you the depth, spreads and margin efficiency you need if volatility spikes again?

For many active traders and smaller managers, the real upgrade is not a new forecast, but a better route into the same market:

tighter pricing on Brent, WTI and related indices
reliable execution during roll, data and headline moves
clear segregation of funds and transparent custody

That often means moving beyond a single retail account and into more institutional-style, multi-asset platforms such as EXANTE , using regulated structures and clean reporting.

Closing and next steps

Oil goes into 2026 with a simple story: steady selling behind us, a mild surplus ahead, and another year of range-bound prices if the big forecasts are right.

But the combination of ongoing demand growth, fragile supply comfort and messy politics means the real distribution of outcomes is wider than a single average price target. That is where traders and investors can still find opportunity – or risk.

As you look at the Brent and WTI charts and plan for next year, it may be worth reviewing not only your view on oil, but where and how you trade it.

If you are considering a move towards platforms such as EXANTE for oil, indices and FX – or simply want to compare your current set-up with a more institutional style – you can reach out via the contact form on the KyriWealth site.

This post is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to trade.