AI Bubble or Next Amazon? Why NVIDIA Isn’t Pets.com

You’re sitting on good savings, watching the markets wobble, and hearing “AI bubble” more often than coffee breaks. Yes, the parallels with the dot-com boom are clear.

But what if the real question isn’t if there’s a bubble, but who will survive it? Enter NVIDIA — dominant, profitable, yet pricey. Let’s walk through what that means for you.

The Big Picture: The AI Rush Is Real

The global AI-infrastructure market is still expanding fast. In 2024 it was worth roughly US $46 billion, rising to around US $59 billion in 2025, and projected to reach US $356 billion by 2032 (Fortune Business Insights).
NVIDIA itself sees potential AI-infrastructure opportunities of US $3–4 trillion by the end of the decade (The Motley Fool).

So structurally, this isn’t a passing fad. It’s the hardware layer of a global technology shift.

Why NVIDIA Stands Apart

NVIDIA isn’t another speculative start-up. It’s a profitable manufacturer at the heart of AI.

Revenues: 2024 revenues climbed from US $35.8 billion in 2023 to US $51.6 billion.
Growth outlook: Analysts expect GPU shipments to double within 12–15 months (Investors.com).
Moat: Its chips dominate data-centre and AI training workloads — hard to replace and in global demand.

This is why some see NVIDIA not as the bubble, but as the infrastructure powering it.

But Let’s Be Honest: Risks Are Rising

The share price already bakes in perfection.

Valuation: Forecasts suggest a year-end 2025 target near US $194, implying possible downside of about 6 % from current levels (24/7 Wall St).
Growth pace: Sequential revenue growth is flattening. Even great companies can’t outrun gravity forever (The Motley Fool).
Market impact: Because NVIDIA is so dominant in AI indices, any stumble could shake wider markets — one analyst even called it a “ticking time-bomb” for sentiment (The Motley Fool UK).
Short-term volatility: Next earnings are due 19 November 2025 after market close, so expect near-term swings.

In short: brilliant business, demanding price.

A Practical Scenario for UK Savers

Imagine you’ve £100,000 to invest over 5–10 years.

Allocation	Scenario	Result
£20K (20 %) in NVIDIA	Stock doubles in 5 years	Portfolio ≈ £120K
£20K (20 %) in NVIDIA	Stock falls 30 %	Portfolio ≈ £94K
£50K (50 %) in NVIDIA	Stock falls 30 %	Portfolio ≈ £85K

A measured slice in NVIDIA gives upside exposure without endangering the rest.
Over-concentration, though, can turn enthusiasm into pain.

The Dot-Com Lesson

In 2000, thousands of internet firms vanished — but a few, like Amazon and Microsoft, survived and multiplied. The investors who kept a small, patient stake in quality innovators were rewarded handsomely.

That’s the logic today. The AI boom will produce casualties, but also enduring giants. NVIDIA looks more like Amazon than Pets.com — but that doesn’t make it risk-free.

Final Thought

There’s scope to back NVIDIA, provided you treat it as a long-term holding within a balanced portfolio. Own a slice of the future, not the whole story. Diversify across sectors and geographies so your success doesn’t hinge on a single narrative.

Want deeper insight? Explore more calm, data-led investing ideas at KyriWealth.com.

Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and reflects independent market observations. It is not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.